Thursday, 29 October 2026 · XAUUSD
Gold Oct 29, 2026: Fed Hike Bets Pressure XAUUSD Below 4,066
Gold trades near 4,038 with a bearish trend, below resistance at 4,066. Hawkish Fed signals weigh on the metal, while Middle East tensions offer some support.
▼ Today's bias: bearish
The technical picture
XAUUSD is at 4,038.29 with a trend score of -5 out of 5, so the short-term structure remains bearish. RSI sits at 41.7, which is weak but not oversold, leaving room for further downside. Price sits between support at 3,995.78 and resistance at 4,066.06, and the average true range of 71.85 points shows how much room a move could cover today. The system's highest-graded setup (grade A, score 90, swing) is a sell-limit zone at 4,103.76, with a stop at 4,247.46 and a first target at 3,960.06.
News and fundamentals
The main pressure on gold comes from the US rate outlook. The Fed held rates steady but signalled a possible December hike, with Treasury yields above 5%, which lifts the dollar and raises real yields. Gold is also falling on those December hike bets. On the other side, reports of possible US strikes on Iran, a drone shootdown near the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi-related attacks support safe-haven demand. Diplomatic moves and oil's sharp drop on deal hopes cut that premium, so the geopolitical bid is unstable.
What matters today
The US Advance GDP and Core PCE data at 12:30 UTC are the main events. A Core PCE forecast of 0.3% against a previous 0.2% would strengthen the hike case and add pressure on gold. Hotter data would likely push the dollar and yields higher, while a softer print could ease pressure on gold. The ECB rate decision and press conference follow at 13:15 and 13:45 UTC, which can move the dollar and cross-market risk appetite.
Scenarios by level
Bulls need a sustained break above 4,066.06 to shift the short-term structure. Bears need a close below 3,995.78 to extend the move toward 3,960.06. Geopolitical headlines can cause sharp, short-lived spikes, so confirmation at these levels matters more than the first reaction.
Scenarios
Target: 4,103.76, then a retest of the wider resistance zone above it
Target: 3,960.06, the first downside target
What to watch today
- US Advance GDP and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (Core PCE forecast 0.3% vs 0.2% previous)
- Resistance at 4,066.06 and support at 3,995.78 as the key levels for direction
- ECB rate decision at 13:15 UTC and press conference at 13:45 UTC
- Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines, which can quickly spark safe-haven buying
News behind this analysis
- Fed Holds Rates Steady, but December Hike Looms as Treasury Yields Stay Above 5% · IndraStra Global▲ 💵 Dollar▼ 🥇 Gold
- Oil Prices Drop 4% after Qatar, Bessent Raise Hopes of a US-Iran Deal · EnergyNow.com▼ 🥇 Gold
- Oil Futures Rise as Attacks on Saudi Arabia, U.S.-Iran Risks Persist · WSJ▲ 🥇 Gold