Thursday, 29 October 2026 · BTCUSD
Bitcoin Analysis, October 29, 2026: Range Between 79,800 and 81,479
Bitcoin trades at about 80,317 in a flat trend, between support near 79,800 and resistance near 81,479. Hawkish Fed signals and Middle East headlines are pulling in opposite directions, so a clean breakout is needed to set the next direction.
■ Today's bias: range
The technical picture
BTCUSD is at 80,317.43, sitting in the middle of a range bounded by support at 79,800 and resistance at 81,478.87. The trend is flat with a trend score of -1 out of 5, and RSI at 47.59 is neutral, leaving no clear momentum signal either way. With ATR near 1,965, a normal daily move is roughly 2,000 points, so the range is tight relative to typical volatility and a breakout could come quickly.
News and fundamentals
The Fed held rates steady but signalled a possible December hike, with Treasury yields staying above 5%. Higher real yields and a firmer dollar are read as negative for bitcoin, as they tighten liquidity. Oil is near $113-114 on Middle East tensions, while diplomatic efforts toward a US-Iran deal have pushed prices lower at times. Risk-off headlines support oil and the dollar and pressure stocks, while calmer headlines help risk appetite. Overall, the news flow leans slightly negative for crypto, with no clear positive catalyst.
What matters today
Several US data releases are due at 12:30 UTC, including Q3 GDP with a 3.2% forecast against 1.5% previously, and core PCE at 0.3% forecast against 0.2%. Hotter inflation or strong growth would reinforce the hawkish Fed outlook and add pressure on risk assets. The ECB decision and press conference follow at 13:15 and 13:45 UTC. The swing setup on the table is a buy stop at 81,773.6 with a stop at 77,843.92 and a first target at 85,703.28, graded B (score 65). It applies only if price breaks higher, so it is a conditional scenario rather than a trade call.
Scenarios
Target: 85,703 (first target of the swing setup)
Target: 77,844, the stop level of the swing setup, with a possible retest of lower level
What to watch today
- 12:30 UTC: US GDP, core PCE and jobless claims, which could shift Fed hike expectations
- 13:15 and 13:45 UTC: ECB rate decision and press conference, which may move the dollar and risk sentiment
- Break of 81,479 resistance or 79,800 support, which would define the next direction
- US-Iran diplomacy and oil headlines, which can swing risk appetite quickly
News behind this analysis
- Fed Holds Rates Steady, but December Hike Looms as Treasury Yields Stay Above 5% · IndraStra Global▲ 💵 Dollar▼ ₿ Crypto
- Oil Price Today (October 29): Crude oil dips to $113 as diplomatic talks outweigh infra attacks. Can oil f · The Economic Times▲ 🌐 Markets
- Oil Prices Drop 4% after Qatar, Bessent Raise Hopes of a US-Iran Deal · EnergyNow.com▲ 🌐 Markets