Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · BTCUSD
Bitcoin Daily Analysis, November 4, 2026: Range Below 79,800
Bitcoin trades near 77,400 in a flat trend, with RSI at 38 and resistance at 79,800. Geopolitical risk, a Nasdaq drop and a hotter CPI flash are weighing on risk assets, so a range with downside risk is the base case.
■ Today's bias: range
The technical picture
Bitcoin is at about 77,400, with the trend flat and scored -1 out of 5, which points to weak momentum rather than a clear direction. RSI at 38.06 sits in the weaker half of its range but is not yet oversold. Support is at 76,326 and resistance at 79,800, and the daily ATR of about 1,950 implies a typical move of roughly 2,000 points, so the range between these levels is wide enough to hold several swings.
News and fundamentals
The news flow is dominated by the Iran conflict, with statements from Trump and the IRGC on the war's duration and conditions, and reports of tanker losses near the Strait of Hormuz. These headlines lift oil and gold on supply and safe-haven demand, while pressuring equities and risk appetite. The Nasdaq falling more than 2% points to a risk-off tone that has tended to spread to crypto, and one headline reports Bitcoin sliding below $76,000 alongside a broad altcoin sell-off, although the price feed shows 77,400, so the latest level should be checked before acting.
What matters today
Today's key data is the 10:00 UTC CPI flash, where the headline y/y is forecast at 4.0% against 3.8% previously, while core is expected flat at 2.5%. A hotter headline would strengthen the case for tighter financial conditions and add pressure on risk assets. The ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC, forecast at 54.8 versus 54.9, will also shape the tone for the US session.
Scenarios
The scanner's best setup is a buy limit near 76,541 with a stop at 75,566 and a first target at 77,516, graded A with a score of 83, but it is an intraday idea and the running signal count is zero. Price needs to hold the 76,326 support zone for the range view to remain valid. A move through resistance would require a shift in the Iran headlines and a calmer equity market.
Scenarios
Target: 79,800 resistance, with a possible extension toward the 80,000 area if momentum
Target: Around 75,566, the stop level of the scanner's buy-limit setup, and the next low
What to watch today
- 10:00 UTC: CPI flash y/y, forecast 4.0% vs 3.8% prior; a hotter print adds pressure on risk assets
- 15:00 UTC: ISM Services PMI, forecast 54.8 vs 54.9 prior
- Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines, which drive oil, gold and equity sentiment
- Key levels: 76,326 support and 79,800 resistance
News behind this analysis
- Iran’s IRGC says four tankers destroyed after hitting mines near Strait of Hormuz · FXStreet▲ 💵 Dollar
- Solana Breaks Below $90 as Bitcoin Slides Under $76,000 · The Defiant▼ ₿ Crypto▼ 🌐 Markets